【題  目】Pains or Gains: Trade War, Trade Deficit, and Tariff Evasion

【時  間】2025年4月22日（星期二） 14:00-16:00

【地  點】騰訊會議 934-422-098

【主講人】車  翼 教授（華東理工大學(xué)商學(xué)院）

【主持人】蔡宏波 教授（北京師范大學(xué)經(jīng)濟與工商管理學(xué)院）

摘要：This paper reveals that the reduction in the US-China trade deficit during the trade war obscured reporting discrepancies in US imports of Chinese products due to tariff evasion. We empirically examine the effect of the US-China trade war on tariff evasion in US imports of Chinese goods and provide direct evidence that market demand of entry states contributes significantly to tariff evasion. Using the input-output table, we find that a one standard deviation increase in local demand causes a 1.312-fold rise in tariff evasion for affected products post–trade war. This effect mainly works through intermediate goods, and its impact grows as importers' tariff liabilities increase. Further analysis considering local social environments shows that voters' attitudes toward trade protection and the development of labor unions play crucial roles in mediating the influence of market demand on tariff evasion.

報告人簡介：

    車翼，華東理工大學(xué)商學(xué)院教授、博士生導(dǎo)師，臨港-華東理工大學(xué)自貿(mào)區(qū)創(chuàng)新研究院副院長。獲得教育部第八屆高等學(xué)校科學(xué)研究優(yōu)秀成果獎（人文社會科學(xué)）青年成果獎、上海市浦江人才計劃；主持國家自然科學(xué)基金2項（面上、青年）；擔(dān)任上海市世界經(jīng)濟學(xué)會青年專委會副主任及上海市國際貿(mào)易學(xué)會常務(wù)理事。研究發(fā)表于Journal of International Economics、Journal of International Business Studies、Economic Journal、《經(jīng)濟學(xué)（季刊）》、《數(shù)量經(jīng)濟技術(shù)經(jīng)濟研究》等國內(nèi)外一流期刊，出版教材1部，同時任American Economic Review等期刊審稿專家。