【題  目】 How Does Trade Policy Uncertainty Affect Firms’Employment and Investment Plans? Causal Evidence from a Survey Experiment with Chinese Manufacturing Firms

【時  間】2025年10月16日（星期四），13:00-14:30

【地  點】后主樓1610

【主講人】盧柯霖 助理教授（華中科技大學(xué)經(jīng)濟學(xué)院）

【主持人】戴  覓 教    授（北京師范大學(xué)經(jīng)濟與工商管理學(xué)院）

摘要：We study how changes in future uncertainty causally shape firms’employment and investment plans. Using a tailored survey experiment of Chinese manufacturers, we elicit quantitative expectations for future tariff outcomes and induce exogenous shocks to the perceived probabilities of “bad” (tariff increases) and “good”(tariff decreases) states. The design separates downside from upside risk, as real-option and growth-option models imply that each channel depends on one side of the uncertainty. We also distinguish increases from decreases in uncertainty. We find clear real-option effects. Higher downside risk lowers planned domestic investment and employment, with no effect on foreign investment. Lowering downside risk has limited effects on employment but raises investment, with smaller magnitudes. Consistent with theory, these effects are stronger when decisions are irreversible. For upside risk, responses are positive and statistically significant only for firms with lower irreversibility, consistent with the growth-option channel. Overall, the results show that distinguishing the type and direction of uncertainty is essential for understanding uncertainty effect and for designing policy.

報告人簡介：

盧柯霖，華中科技大學(xué)經(jīng)濟學(xué)院助理教授。2018年本科畢業(yè)于北京師范大學(xué)，2023年獲美國印第安納大學(xué)布魯明頓分校經(jīng)濟學(xué)博士學(xué)位。主要研究興趣包括宏觀經(jīng)濟學(xué)與行為經(jīng)濟學(xué)。工作論文發(fā)表在《Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control》（2篇）、《Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization》（2篇）及《經(jīng)濟學(xué)季刊》。曾主持國家自然科學(xué)基金青年項目。